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2024 NFL Draft prospect
Luke McCaffrey
age 23.1 · 6'2" · 198 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 29% and the realistic range is No. 70 to No. 225.
rank#226CompBo Melton
American Athletic→ WAS's 2024 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Luke McCaffrey at pick #226; he was actually picked #100 by WAS. 2 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 3.3 of 20 per season). The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter. NFL grades have been modest so far (4% recent-3, 11% peak across 1 seasons). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $7M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Speculative#226WR·Rice
The league moved faster than our board — WAS took him at No. 100, 126 picks ahead of our No. 226 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production1
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk5
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports