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2024 NFL Draft prospect
Malik Mustapha
age 21.8
On the live board, bust risk sits at 28% and the realistic range is No. 58 to No. 246.
rank#138$1.1MCompIfeatu Melifonwu
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Malik Mustapha at pick #138; he was actually picked #124 by SFO. 2 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 3.1 of 20 per season). The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 4%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 1% peak across 1 seasons). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $5M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#138CB·Wake Forest
We had him No. 138 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — SFO took him at No. 124. The seasons since are the scoreboard.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production1
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk3
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports