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2024 NFL Draft prospect
Caelen Carson
age 22.1 · 6'0" · 199 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 35% and the realistic range is No. 37 to No. 234.
rank#150$1.1MCompCameron Dantzler
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Caelen Carson at pick #150; he was actually picked #174 by DAL. 2 NFL seasons in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading -0.4 of 20 per season). So far, the league's caution is winning the argument. The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 5%. NFL grades have been modest so far (1% recent-3, 2% peak across 1 seasons). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $6M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#150CB·Wake Forest
We had him No. 150 on draft night; DAL didn't call his name until No. 174 — a 24-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production1
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk4
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports