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2024 NFL Draft prospect
AJ Barner
age 22.0 · 6'6" · 251 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 14% and the realistic range is No. 71 to No. 219.
rank#174$1MCompTre' McKitty
Big Ten→ SEA's 2024 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded AJ Barner at pick #174; he was actually picked #121 by SEA. 2 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 7.0 of 20 per season). The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 1 seasons). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $9M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#174TE·Michigan
The league moved faster than our board — SEA took him at No. 121, 53 picks ahead of our No. 174 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production1
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk4
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports