Refreshed just now
rank#195$1M
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Justin Eboigbe at pick #195; he was actually picked #105 by LAC. 2 NFL seasons in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading -1.4 of 20 per season). The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 2%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 1 seasons).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#195DL·Alabama
The league moved faster than our board — LAC took him at No. 105, 90 picks ahead of our No. 195 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Justin Eboigbe at #195 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and LAC took him at No. 105, 90 picks earlier than our grade. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage and his recruiting pedigree. Bust risk projects at 46%, elevated against the position baseline. The room had him #140 pre-draft; our board sat 55 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 6, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production1
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports