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2025 NFL Draft prospect
Caleb Ransaw
age 22.3
On the live board, bust risk sits at 28% and the realistic range is No. 56 to No. 204.
American Athletic→ JAX's 2025 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Caleb Ransaw at pick #159; he was actually picked #88 by JAX. The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Caleb Ransaw at #159 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and JAX took him at No. 88. The model's case leans on his age curve. Bust risk projects at 28%, near the position baseline. The room had him #151 pre-draft; our board sat 8 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 5, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Draftanomics Pick?
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk4
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports