Refreshed just now
2025 NFL Draft prospect
Jalen Rivers
On the live board, bust risk sits at 21% and the realistic range is No. 58 to No. 206.
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Jalen Rivers at pick #161; he was actually picked #153 by CIN. The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Jalen Rivers at #161 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and CIN took him at No. 153. The model's case leans on his recruiting pedigree. Bust risk projects at 21%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #142 pre-draft; our board sat 19 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 5, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Draftanomics Pick?
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports