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2025 NFL Draft prospect
Dorian Strong
age 23.1 · 6'1" · 185 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 35% and the realistic range is No. 47 to No. 244.
Limited public-board coverage (2 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Dorian Strong at pick #160; he was actually picked #177 by BUF. 1 NFL season in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading -3.2 of 20 per season). The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Dorian Strong at #160 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and BUF took him at No. 177. The model's case leans on his age curve. Bust risk projects at 35%, near the position baseline. The room had him #130 pre-draft; our board sat 30 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 5, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk3
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports