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2025 NFL Draft prospect
Jack Nelson
6'7" · 314 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 25% and the realistic range is No. 116 to No. 266.
Big Ten→ ATL's 2025 class
Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Jack Nelson at pick #173; he was actually picked #218 by ATL.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Jack Nelson at #173 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and ATL took him at No. 218. Bust risk projects at 25%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 5, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk1
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports