Skip to main content
Draftanomics
Prospect dossier

A.J. Holmes Jr.

DL · Texas Tech · 2027 NFL Draft class

Public Draft Board rank #51·11 contributing sources·Board as of August 31, 2026
Draftanomics scouting
Revised preseason edition · September 6, 20263 min readReport role: DL · Texas Tech

Master scouting report

Holmes makes the strongest NFL case as a quick interior disruptor whose hands and leverage can let him play above his dimensions. The attractive part is a path to useful snaps against both the run and pass; the unresolved part is whether he can control an NFL block when he does not win the initial exchange.

By Draftanomics · Sources & edition · Print report

01Experience and production

Holmes recorded 38 tackles, nine tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks and four pass breakups in 14 games for Texas Tech in 2025, earning Associated Press second-team All-America recognition. His opportunity expanded after Skyler Gill-Howard's injury. He had previously made 16 starts at Houston, giving him starting experience before the larger Texas Tech role.

02Get-off and power

Holmes threatens a guard's edge with his first step and can convert that quickness into a forceful bull rush. Flexibility allows him to attack from several interior spots. His best fit is an attacking three-technique, using leverage and initial movement to prevent the blocker from settling squarely on his compact frame.

03Hands and recovery

Holmes lands his hands effectively on the blocker's pads and can create separation with active, forceful work. Punch and anchor consistency vary. Limited reach leaves less margin for a late strike; once a longer blocker controls his chest, recovering the leverage is more difficult.

04Run defense

Holmes is effective when the first strike establishes leverage and prevents the run block from developing. His anchor is less consistent after losing that exchange, especially when a larger blocker reaches his frame. A defined attacking gap with support against combinations fits him better than repeated assignments absorbing size at the line.

05Pass rush

Quickness and bull-rush power give Holmes direct ways to pressure a guard, with 4.5 sacks in 2025 providing finishing production. The broader counter package is less developed. He needs to connect the second action to the guard's response and retain balance when the initial penetration stops.

The case for the player

Strengths

  • Initial quickness, useful leverage and disruptive hand work offer complementary ways to win inside.

  • Experience at Houston and a productive Texas Tech season give the evaluation more substance than a short replacement cameo.

The questions that remain

Concerns

  • Anchor and hand consistency remain the dividing line between an effective attacking rotation player and a defender who can take a broader workload.

  • Limited reach raises the cost of losing first contact against NFL interior size.

Building the fit

NFL role and scheme fit

Start with a rotational interior role in a front that lets him attack a gap, slant and work alongside a sturdier block absorber. He can compete for early-down work while supplying an interior rush option, but the staff should earn its confidence in expanded assignments through his anchor and recovery against combinations. The roster value comes from being useful in both phases without needing to become a different body type.

The Draftanomics view

Bottom line

At 300 pounds, Holmes projects as an attacking interior rotation player with value in both phases. Quickness, leverage and hand activity give him a clear way to win. Limited reach and inconsistent anchoring make the first exchange unusually important. More dependable recovery after losing contact would expand his early-down workload beyond selected gap attacks.

Sources & edition

The Draftanomics assessment, synthesized from attributed reporting. Role and development language expresses scouting opinion.

Preseason assessment using college evidence through 2025 and subsequent roster, practice and scouting reporting. This edition does not evaluate 2026 regular-season games or claim a new Draftanomics film study.

Edition reviewed September 7, 2026. Updates the full-season totals and current listed weight, and distinguishes the conflicting evaluations of his hands and run defense.

The original August edition remains preserved. This is a revised Draftanomics assessment, with supporting sources attached to each statement.

View the 5 referenced sources
Read statement references

Every passage remains linked to its supporting sources. Open a section to inspect the assessment and its evidence.

Sources for overview
  1. House assessment

    Holmes makes the strongest NFL case as a quick interior disruptor whose hands and leverage can let him play above his dimensions.

  2. House assessment

    The attractive part is a path to useful snaps against both the run and pass; the unresolved part is whether he can control an NFL block when he does not win the initial exchange.

Sources for experience and production
  1. House assessment

    Holmes recorded 38 tackles, nine tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks and four pass breakups in 14 games for Texas Tech in 2025, earning Associated Press second-team All-America recognition. His opportunity expanded after Skyler Gill-Howard's injury. He had previously made 16 starts at Houston, giving him starting experience before the larger Texas Tech role.

Sources for get-off and power
  1. House assessment

    Holmes threatens a guard's edge with his first step and can convert that quickness into a forceful bull rush. Flexibility allows him to attack from several interior spots. His best fit is an attacking three-technique, using leverage and initial movement to prevent the blocker from settling squarely on his compact frame.

Sources for hands and recovery
  1. House assessment

    Holmes lands his hands effectively on the blocker's pads and can create separation with active, forceful work. Punch and anchor consistency vary. Limited reach leaves less margin for a late strike; once a longer blocker controls his chest, recovering the leverage is more difficult.

Sources for run defense
  1. House assessment

    Holmes is effective when the first strike establishes leverage and prevents the run block from developing. His anchor is less consistent after losing that exchange, especially when a larger blocker reaches his frame. A defined attacking gap with support against combinations fits him better than repeated assignments absorbing size at the line.

Sources for pass rush
  1. House assessment

    Quickness and bull-rush power give Holmes direct ways to pressure a guard, with 4.5 sacks in 2025 providing finishing production. The broader counter package is less developed. He needs to connect the second action to the guard's response and retain balance when the initial penetration stops.

Sources for strength
  1. House assessment

    Initial quickness, useful leverage and disruptive hand work offer complementary ways to win inside.

Sources for strength
  1. House assessment

    Experience at Houston and a productive Texas Tech season give the evaluation more substance than a short replacement cameo.

Sources for concern
  1. House assessment

    Anchor and hand consistency remain the dividing line between an effective attacking rotation player and a defender who can take a broader workload.

Sources for concern
  1. House assessment

    Limited reach raises the cost of losing first contact against NFL interior size.

Sources for nfl role and scheme fit
  1. House assessment

    Start with a rotational interior role in a front that lets him attack a gap, slant and work alongside a sturdier block absorber.

  2. House assessment

    He can compete for early-down work while supplying an interior rush option, but the staff should earn its confidence in expanded assignments through his anchor and recovery against combinations.

  3. House assessment

    The roster value comes from being useful in both phases without needing to become a different body type.

Sources for bottom line
  1. House assessment

    At 300 pounds, Holmes projects as an attacking interior rotation player with value in both phases. Quickness, leverage and hand activity give him a clear way to win. Limited reach and inconsistent anchoring make the first exchange unusually important. More dependable recovery after losing contact would expand his early-down workload beyond selected gap attacks.

College record & draft context

College production, measurables, experience, and the prospect's place on the sealed Public Draft Board.

Public Draft Board

Public Draft Board rank
#51
Position rank
DL7
Contributing sources
11
Movement since prior snapshot
Down 20

Sealed snapshot as of August 31, 2026 · equal-weight aggregation of public boards, minimum 3 sources for a rank · The Public Draft Board

College production

Defense
StatisticSeason 2024Season 2025
Total tackles3540
Solo tackles1924
Tackles for loss8.510
Sacks2.54.5
Passes defended04
QB hurries57
Defensive TD00

Seasons of evidence: 2. Games played, snap counts, and usage shares are not in the retained data. An em dash means the value is not in the dataset, not zero.

Evidence notes

  • The retained data contains 2 seasons of defense production (2024–2025).
  • Defense tackles increased in each observed season (35 → 40).
  • The newest college season in the retained data is 2025; the 2026 season is not yet included.
  • No verified athletic testing is included in the sealed dataset for this prospect.
  • 11 contributing public boards rank this prospect; the Public Draft Board places him at #51.
  • The aggregate public rank fell 20 spots between the two most recent sealed weekly snapshots.

Each note restates a displayed fact. None is a forecast of NFL performance.

Experience and measurements

Listed height
6'3"
Listed weight
300 lb
Class
Senior
Age
Not in dataset
Recorded school
Houston
Former school
Not in dataset
Hometown
Houston, TX
Jersey
#10
Recruiting stars
3-star
Recruiting rank
#873 nationally

"Not in dataset" means the value is absent from the sealed dossier dataset, not that it does not exist.

Athletic testing

Not included in the sealed dataset. No combine, pro-day, or RAS value is retained for the 2027 class; absence here does not mean no testing has taken place.

Listed roster height and weight (CollegeFootballData); no verified athletic testing is retained. Bio captured August 29, 2026.

Historical comparisons

Historical profile comparisons are being rebuilt.

Sources and methodology

  • Retained bio and measurements: Draftanomics prospect ingest (CollegeFootballData rosters and recruiting), retained seed data/seed/prospects_upcoming_full.parquet.
  • Retained college production: CollegeFootballData season statistics via the retained player cross-reference; position-relevant categories only; all-zero category rows dropped.
  • Age: unavailable — no birth date or age is retained for the 2027 class.
  • Transfer history: not retained — the page shows the current school and, where the frozen id names a different school, the former school.
  • Public Draft Board: sealed snapshot as of August 31, 2026; per-source ranks are not published under the aggregate-only source policy.

Board methodologyDossier methodologyResearch status

Board position reflects aggregated public opinion; the scouting report is a separate editorial assessment.