On the live board, bust risk sits at 13% and the realistic range is No. 77 to No. 261.
One season of tape on the box score, and it's a thin one — 23 tackles, three tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks in 2024 at a 6-5, 244-pound frame. The model has him buried at No. 218 on the 2027 board, while the one public board tracking him puts him at No. 70, a gap wide enough that the room may be seeing something the numbers alone don't yet show.
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Both of the model's reads put him in Day-3 / priority-free-agent range. If the public boards are higher, the model is the one doing the fading — check the dossier for what it isn't seeing.
Draftanomics ranks Bryce Young at #218 overall — a Day 3 grade. Bust risk projects at 13%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. Public consensus has him #65; Draftanomics's board is 153 spots lower — the model sees a gap the room doesn't.
Written from the live model's numbers — and it updates whenever the model does. See for what drives the take.
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Historical players this prospect resembles
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports
Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and busts apart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.
1 public board track this prospect. Per-board breakdown loads with the live board.
Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.
The grade is held down by how many boards rank him top-100, his charted total career snaps, and his charted catch rate allowed avg.
The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.
Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.
Everything that could go wrong with Bryce Young, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.
Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.
Roster-based need returns once the 2026 season is played — grading this year’s teams on last year’s depth chart would be guessing. What’s knowable now: the teams holding picks around No. 218, and which of them already spent premium capital at EDGE / DL / LB in the 2026 draft.
Gold means no recent premium investment at EDGE / DL / LB — the cleaner fit on paper. Grey means they already spent one.