Hollywood Smothers turned in 160 carries for 939 yards and a 5.9-yard average at Texas in 2025, punching in six rushing touchdowns, but the per-play efficiency numbers tell a colder story.
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Hollywood Smothersis off the model's board — nothing to rank yet. No public board carries him and the model has no production, testing, or age data to anchor a real number. The take fills in as boards and testing land.
A Charlotte, NC native, Smothers arrived at Texas as a four-star recruit — the No. 379 player in his high-school class on the national composite. He enters the season as a junior, listed at 5'11" and 193 pounds, wearing No. 2.
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Historical players this prospect resembles
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports
No tier prediction yet for this prospect.
2 public boards track this prospect. Per-board breakdown loads with the live board.
Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.
The grade is held down by how many boards rank him top-100, his charted total career snaps, and scout consensus.
The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.
The graded panels below carry the read here. We write a report when the model disagrees with the board or there's scouting film to cite — neither applies yet.
| Source | Rank | Weight | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucs Wire Andrew Harbaugh | #41 | 0.50 | 2026-08-13 | source ↗ |
| Draft Sharks Shane Hallam | #74 | 0.50 | 2026-08-13 | source ↗ |
| Tankathon staff | #111 | 0.50 | 2026-08-13 | source ↗ |
| Last Word On Sports Drew Crabtree | #114 | 0.50 | 2026-08-13 | source ↗ |
| PFF · Daire Carragher | #124 | 0.50 | 2026-08-13 | source ↗ |
| Sports Talk Sam Teets | #124 | 0.50 | 2026-08-13 | source ↗ |
August gap: the marquee Tier-A boards haven't published yet — weighting falls back to the full room.
Production climbed from 571 rushing yards in 2024 to 939 in 2025.
| Season | Team | Games | Carries | Rush yards | Rush TD | Rec | Rec yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Oklahoma | 4 | 12 | 43 | 0 | — | — |
| 2024 | Nc State | 11 | 89 | 571 | 6 | 19 | 263 |
| 2025 | Nc State | 11 | 160 | 939 | 6 | 37 | 189 |
Counting stats from charted college games. A dash means the stat wasn't recorded that season.
Percentiles are direction-aware — for 40-time / 3-cone / shuttle, lower is faster, so a 95th-percentile mark means faster than 95% of peers. Hover any percentile for the exact peer group and sample size. A missing row means he hasn't posted that measurement.
Everything that could go wrong with Hollywood Smothers, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.
Failure-mode scan combining bust probability, closest historical comp's arc, age curve, and active flags. Read this before turning in the card.
The 4-tier hybrid model assigns elevated bust risk. Above 30% bust prob is the threshold above which historical false-positive rates spike — confirm the production signal isn't being rescued by an outlier athletic test.
mean 0.54 · σ 0.25· range 1.00
Scores are min-max normalized across the 32 teams using a trait-vector × scheme-matrix system. Top drivers shown per team. Teams marked neutral use default scheme weights.
No draft-media headlines link here yet — when an outlet we track writes this player up, it lands in this panel automatically.