A modest three-TFL, 1.5-sack 2024 turned into a nine-TFL, five-sack 2025 for Jonathan Maldonado, the Ole Miss EDGE — the kind of jump that gets a name circulating. The model's career-value board isn't chasing it yet: Maldonado sits at No. 152 while the one public board tracked here has him at No. 70, an 82-spot gap the model flags as real dissent.
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
The room is in love; the model isn't sold. If you take him this high you're trusting the public over your analytics — be ready to defend it.
Draftanomics ranks Jonathan Maldonado at #152 overall — a Day 3 grade. Bust risk projects at 12%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. Public consensus has him #70; Draftanomics's board is 82 spots lower — the model sees a gap the room doesn't.
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Historical players this prospect resembles
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 5, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and busts apart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.
The bracketed ranges show how far each number could reasonably move — they come from how 23–57 similar players in past drafts actually turned out.
1 public board track this prospect. Per-board breakdown loads with the live board.
Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.
The grade is held down by how many boards rank him top-100, production trajectory, and scout consensus.
The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.
Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.
Everything that could go wrong with Jonathan Maldonado, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.
Roster-based need returns once the 2026 season is played — grading this year’s teams on last year’s depth chart would be guessing. What’s knowable now: the teams holding picks around No. 152, and which of them already spent premium capital at EDGE / DL / LB in the 2026 draft.
Gold means no recent premium investment at EDGE / DL / LB — the cleaner fit on paper. Grey means they already spent one.