Draftanomics

AAV rankings

Two numbers per prospect, because a second contract is two bets. The odds column is the chance he earns a second NFL deal at all, priced at draft time — about 87 percent of first-rounders do, about 22 percent of seventh-rounders. The dollar figure is the deal's average annual value — the AAV in the page title — what it pays per season if it happens, in today's cap dollars, built from every real second contract signed by the 2015–2023 classes. We show them separately rather than blending them into one expected value: nobody signs the average of $60 million and nothing. The order does multiply them, though — a $17 million projection you collect one time in five is not worth more than a $17 million projection you collect almost surely, so the rank is odds × dollars even though the columns stay separate. For classes already through the league, compare the projection with what the player actually signed — both translated to the current cap, so a 2015 deal and a 2022 deal sit on the same scale.

#PlayerPosCollege2nd-deal oddsAAV if signedActualDiff
1Alex SmithPGeorgia Southern$3.5M-$5.3M
2Nathanial VakosKWisconsin$0.9M-$1.3M
3Shea FreibaumLSTexas A&M$0.9M-$1.3M
4Joey ScardinaKArmy$0.9M-$1.3M
5Jared WhitePTarleton State$0.9M-$1.3M
6Keelan AndersonKWyoming$0.9M-$1.3M
7Tripp WoodyKSyracuse$0.9M-$1.3M
8Jacob HandKTexas Tech$0.9M-$1.3M
9James RoeLSWisconsin$0.9M-$1.3M
10Anderson BrittonKArmy$0.9M-$1.3M
11Ryan BarkerKPenn State$0.9M-$1.3M
12Skyler SholderKDelaware$0.9M-$1.3M
13Tyler RoblesKWashington$0.9M-$1.3M
14Jarrett ReeserPBoise State$0.9M-$1.3M
15Frank NaughtonLSWestern Kentucky$0.9M-$1.3M
16Zach GordonKNorthern Illinois$0.9M-$1.3M
17Konner OlsonKNew Mexico$0.9M-$1.3M
18Connor CalvertKWake Forest$0.9M-$1.3M
19Ethan HeadKTroy$0.9M-$1.3M
20Tom MaginnessPNorth Carolina$0.9M-$1.3M
21David BirdLSCalifornia$0.9M-$1.3M
22Kaden TurnerPTexas Tech$0.9M-$1.3M
23Zach HaberLSNew Mexico State$0.9M-$1.3M
24Carl HardinKTemple$0.9M-$1.3M
25Beckham SunderlandKMinnesota$0.9M-$1.3M
26Will HryszkoKOhio$0.9M-$1.3M
27Robert Hammond IIIKKansas State$0.9M-$1.3M
28Anthony VenneriPBuffalo$0.9M-$1.3M
29Morrow EvansLSUCLA$0.9M-$1.3M
30Aiden WebbKPrairie View A&M$0.9M-$1.3M
31Marlon HauckKTulsa$0.9M-$1.3M
32Brock WaltersLSKennesaw State$0.9M-$1.3M
33Dante AttonPTemple$0.9M-$1.3M
34Ronald DaragjatiKMiami$0.9M-$1.3M
35Liam BoydKMichigan State$0.9M-$1.3M
36Joseph StoeverLSBuffalo$0.9M-$1.3M
37Jackson CourvilleKTulane$0.9M-$1.3M
38Sam StoneKBoston College$0.9M-$1.3M
39Hyrum HatchLSUtah State$0.9M-$1.3M
40Damon GreavesPColorado$0.9M-$1.3M
41Alan SoukupLSMinnesota$0.9M-$1.3M
42Lars RauPIllinois$0.9M-$1.3M
43Dylan DrennanPPurdue$0.9M-$1.3M
44Tomas O'HalloranPEast Carolina$0.9M-$1.3M
45Dylan JoycePMiami$0.9M-$1.3M
46Dominic DiazLSAir Force$0.9M-$1.3M
47Luke DunnePWashington$0.9M-$1.3M
48Kaden MorganKSam Houston$0.9M-$1.3M
49Jacob UlrichPOklahoma$0.9M-$1.3M
50Wyatt FreemanLSRice$0.9M-$1.3M
51Max DeanPWashington State$0.9M-$1.3M
52Charlie WeinrichKHouston Christian$0.9M-$1.3M
53Ryan ManisLSLouisville$0.9M-$1.3M
54Caleb SchlaterLSHoly Cross$0.9M-$1.3M
55Grant RountreeLSAir Force$0.9M-$1.3M
56Hamilton DiBoyanKAustin Peay$0.9M-$1.3M
57Owen WileyKAkron$0.9M-$1.3M
58Max MirandaKAir Force$0.9M-$1.3M
59Hudson PowellLSMiami (OH)$0.9M-$1.3M
60Harry WebsterPNevada$0.9M-$1.3M
61Jackson KleatherKNorthwestern$0.9M-$1.3M
62Jacob KauweKKentucky$0.9M-$1.3M
63Jackson LeeLSFlorida Atlantic$0.9M-$1.3M
64Jack KautzLSEastern Michigan$0.9M-$1.3M
65Jackson WallerPNC State$0.9M-$1.3M
66Paddy McAteerKIndiana$0.9M-$1.3M
67Charlie BarnettKArmy$0.9M-$1.3M
68Connor CookLSTulsa$0.9M-$1.3M
69Brady DenaburgKMinnesota$0.9M-$1.3M
70Kanyon FloydPArizona State$0.9M-$1.3M
71Lucas OsadaPIllinois$0.9M-$1.3M
72Nicolas RadicicKIndiana$0.9M-$1.3M
73Trey DubucLSTexas$0.9M-$1.3M
74Caden KellowLSUtah State$0.9M-$1.3M
75Jordan DoellingPFlorida International$0.9M-$1.3M
76Max FletcherPCincinnati$0.9M-$1.3M
77Braeden McAlisterKArkansas$0.9M-$1.3M
78Towns McGoughKCalifornia$0.9M-$1.3M
79Bobby EngstlerPCalifornia$0.9M-$1.3M
80Jackson RossPTennessee$0.9M-$1.3M
81Drew MillerPGeorgia$0.9M-$1.3M
82Jake WeinbergKMiami$0.9M-$1.3M
83Sam CandottiPBoston College$0.9M-$1.3M
84Tyler WhitePTexas A&M$0.9M-$1.3M
85Aidan FlintoftPStanford$0.9M-$1.3M
86Will BettridgeKVirginia$0.9M-$1.3M
87Jack StoneKBaylor$0.9M-$1.3M
88Eli SteinLSArkansas$0.9M-$1.3M
89Bryce McFersonPMaryland$0.9M-$1.3M
90Nolan HauserKClemson$0.9M-$1.3M
91Spencer PorathKPurdue$0.9M-$1.3M
92Alex McPhersonKAuburn$0.9M-$1.3M
93Rhys DakinPMichigan State$0.9M-$1.3M
94AJ VinatieriKLindenwood$0.9M-$1.3M
95Sam WolfendenLSTemple$0.9M-$1.3M
96Ethan MoczulskiKIllinois$0.9M-$1.3M
97Tyler BlackKLiberty$0.9M-$1.3M
98Adam SamahaKMichigan$0.9M-$1.3M
99Connor HawkinsKOhio State$0.9M-$1.3M
100Nico GramaticaKSouth Florida$0.9M-$1.3M

How these numbers are made. Two models, both built from real second contracts (as logged by Over the Cap) signed by the 2015–2023 draft classes. The odds column asks one question — does a drafted player earn a second NFL deal? — using only what is knowable on draft night: projected slot, bust risk, size, position. Tested on draft classes it never saw, it lands within a few points of the real round-by-round rates. The dollar column projects what the deal pays as a slice of that year's salary cap, then converts to today's cap — so it answers “what does the deal look like if he earns one,” not a blended expectation. Prospects who haven't played an NFL snap are projected on draft-night information alone; prospects who never cracked the consensus board get the rookie-scale figure and no odds, because the model has nothing honest to say about them. See methodology for how closely the projected odds track what actually happened.