3 prospects · 2015 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Nelson Agholor (age 21.9 at draft) as a first-round pick at #27 (range #25-#29, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. Career trajectory in receiving yards: 340 → 918 → 1313. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #27 stands alone — and with bust risk at 6%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Dorial Green-Beckham (age 22.0 at draft) as a first-round pick at #13 (range #1-#27, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #13 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Tony Lippett (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #236 (range #234-#238, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. Career trajectory in receiving yards: 44 → 392 → 613 → 1198. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Production concentrated in one season: best 1198 receiving yards vs 4-season mean 562. Limited multi-year tape — small sample of true production. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #236 stands alone — and with bust risk at 6%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.