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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE, OLB)
NO
Nate Orchard
EDGE · Utah
22.3 yo · 6'3" · 250 lb
SR
Shaquille Riddick
EDGE · West Virginia
21.9 yo · — · —
BD
Bud Dupree
OLB · Kentucky
22.2 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Nate Orchard
Predicted pick
#17
range #7–#27
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$13Mmodel
Shaquille Riddick
Predicted pick
#10
range #19–#145
Bust probability
44%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$16Mmodel
Bud Dupree
Predicted pick
#23
range #9–#37
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$31Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Nate Orchard· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Shaquille Riddick· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Bud Dupree· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionNate Orchard0
  • AthleticismNate Orchard42
  • AgeShaquille Riddick99
  • ConsensusShaquille Riddick89
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Nate Orchard50
  • Breakout ageNate Orchard50
  • WorkloadNate Orchard50
  • RAS × productionNate Orchard100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Nate Orchard
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Shaquille Riddick
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Bud Dupree
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Nate Orchard
Risks
  • Not on any consensus board
    Model has him at pick #17 but ZERO public big boards have him on their list. Either we're seeing something nobody else does, or the model is hallucinating.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Shaquille Riddick
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Bud Dupree
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Not on any consensus board
    Model has him at pick #23 but ZERO public big boards have him on their list. Either we're seeing something nobody else does, or the model is hallucinating.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Nate OrchardShaquille RiddickBud Dupree· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Nate Orchard

Draftanomics projects Nate Orchard (age 22.3 at draft) as a first-round pick at #17 (range #7-#27, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #17 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.

Shaquille Riddick

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 charting total career snaps; +0.03 HS recruit rating

Bud Dupree

Draftanomics projects Bud Dupree (age 22.2 at draft) as a first-round pick at #23 (range #9-#37, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #23 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.