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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (QB)
BH
Brett Hundley
QB · UCLA
21.9 yo · 6'3" · 226 lb
GG
Garrett Grayson
QB · Colorado St.
23.9 yo · — · —
BP
Bryce Petty
QB · Baylor
23.9 yo · 6'3" · 230 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Brett Hundley
Predicted pick
#45
range #114–#211
Bust probability· rough estimate
23%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Garrett Grayson
Predicted pick
#221
range #138–#272
Bust probability· rough estimate
31%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$15Mmodel
Bryce Petty
Predicted pick
#240
range #103–#255
Bust probability· rough estimate
30%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Brett Hundley· QB
  • Garrett Grayson· QB
  • Bryce Petty· QB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionBrett Hundley0
  • AthleticismBrett Hundley50
  • AgeBrett Hundley100
  • ConsensusBryce Petty94
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Brett Hundley50
  • Breakout ageBrett Hundley50
  • WorkloadBrett Hundley50
  • RAS × productionBrett Hundley50

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Brett Hundley
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Garrett Grayson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Bryce Petty
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Brett Hundley
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Garrett Grayson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Bryce Petty
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Brett HundleyGarrett GraysonBryce Petty· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Brett Hundley

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.04 production trajectory; −0.03 Power-5 production share

Garrett Grayson

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.04 age; +0.03 position role purity

Bryce Petty

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.04 age; −0.03 production trajectory