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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
JA
Jay Ajayi
RB · Boise St.
21.9 yo · 6'0" · 221 lb
TC
Tevin Coleman
RB · Indiana
22.0 yo · 5'11" · 206 lb
JR
Josh Robinson
RB · Mississippi St.
22.7 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Jay Ajayi
Predicted pick
#64
range #64–#221
Bust probability
11%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Tevin Coleman
Predicted pick
#66
range #66–#223
Bust probability
9%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel
Josh Robinson
Predicted pick
#245
range #108–#260
Bust probability
69%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Jay Ajayi· RB / WR / TE
  • Tevin Coleman· RB / WR / TE
  • Josh Robinson· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJay Ajayi33
  • AthleticismJay Ajayi40
  • AgeJay Ajayi97
  • ConsensusTevin Coleman85
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Jay Ajayi50
  • Breakout ageJay Ajayi50
  • WorkloadJay Ajayi100
  • RAS × productionJay Ajayi0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Jay Ajayi
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Tevin Coleman
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Josh Robinson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Jay Ajayi
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Tevin Coleman
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Josh Robinson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Jay AjayiTevin ColemanJosh Robinson· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Jay Ajayi

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.02 lowest board ranking; +0.02 age

Tevin Coleman

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 production trajectory; +0.02 age

Josh Robinson

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 production trajectory; −0.02 HS recruit rating