2 prospects · 2015 draft
Jay Ajayi and Tevin Coleman project within 8 picks of each other, and neither bust risk nor the historical comps can separate them. Take the one at the position of greater need.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jay Ajayi (age 21.9 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #64 (range #62-#66, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. Career trajectory in rushing yards: 548 → 1425 → 1823. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. PPA avg_all 0.276 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #64 stands alone — and with bust risk at 6%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Tevin Coleman (age 22.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #66 (range #64-#68, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 5% — low. Career trajectory in rushing yards: 225 → 958 → 2036. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. PPA avg_all 0.220 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #66 stands alone — and with bust risk at 5%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.