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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DT)
DP
David Parry
DT · Stanford
23.1 yo · 6'1" · 308 lb
CD
Carl Davis
DT · Iowa
23.1 yo · 6'5" · 320 lb
DK
Darius Kilgo
DT · Maryland
23.4 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

David Parry
Predicted pick
#108
range #78–#238
Bust probability
25%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Carl Davis
Predicted pick
#129
range #99–#259
Bust probability
27%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Darius Kilgo
Predicted pick
#120
range #90–#250
Bust probability
18%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • David Parry· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Carl Davis· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Darius Kilgo· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDavid Parry0
  • AthleticismDavid Parry42
  • AgeDavid Parry40
  • ConsensusCarl Davis64
  • Per-play impact (PPA)David Parry50
  • Breakout ageDavid Parry50
  • WorkloadDavid Parry50
  • RAS × productionDavid Parry100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
David Parry
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Carl Davis
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Darius Kilgo
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

David Parry
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Carl Davis
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Darius Kilgo
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
David ParryCarl DavisDarius Kilgo· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

David Parry

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 charting total career snaps; +0.03 HS recruit rating

Carl Davis

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; −0.02 age

Darius Kilgo

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.03 age; +0.03 HS recruit rating