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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
TS
Tye Smith
CB · Towson
22.0 yo · 6'0" · 195 lb
TW
Tray Walker
CB · Texas Southern
22.7 yo · — · —
SN
Steven Nelson
CB · Oregon St.
22.3 yo · 5'10" · 197 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Tye Smith
Predicted pick
#61
range #130–#227
Bust probability· rough estimate
43%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Tray Walker
Predicted pick
#109
range #79–#239
Bust probability· rough estimate
30%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Steven Nelson
Predicted pick
#38
range #107–#204
Bust probability· rough estimate
12%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$11Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Tye Smith· CB / S
  • Tray Walker· CB / S
  • Steven Nelson· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTye Smith50
  • AthleticismTye Smith42
  • AgeTye Smith99
  • ConsensusTye Smith59
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Tye Smith50
  • Breakout ageTye Smith50
  • WorkloadTye Smith50
  • RAS × productionTye Smith100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Tye Smith
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Tray Walker
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Steven Nelson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Tye Smith
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Tray Walker
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Steven Nelson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Tye SmithTray WalkerSteven Nelson· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Tye Smith

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; −0.02 lowest board ranking

Tray Walker

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; −0.02 lowest board ranking

Steven Nelson

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; +0.02 charting total career snaps