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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
KM
Keith Mumphery
WR · Michigan St.
22.9 yo · 6'0" · 215 lb
DW
Darren Waller
WR · Georgia Tech
22.6 yo · 6'6" · 238 lb
DG
Dorial Green-Beckham
WR · Oklahoma
22.0 yo · 6'5" · 237 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Keith Mumphery
Predicted pick
#248
range #111–#263
Bust probability
12%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel
Darren Waller
Predicted pick
#151
range #94–#244
Bust probability
15%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel
Dorial Green-Beckham
Predicted pick
#13
range #22–#148
Bust probability
29%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$12Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Keith Mumphery· RB / WR / TE
  • Darren Waller· RB / WR / TE
  • Dorial Green-Beckham· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionKeith Mumphery33
  • AthleticismKeith Mumphery40
  • AgeDorial Green-Beckham94
  • ConsensusDorial Green-Beckham87
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Keith Mumphery50
  • Breakout ageKeith Mumphery50
  • WorkloadKeith Mumphery100
  • RAS × productionKeith Mumphery0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Keith Mumphery
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Darren Waller
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Dorial Green-Beckham
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Keith Mumphery
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Darren Waller
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Dorial Green-Beckham
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Keith MumpheryDarren WallerDorial Green-Beckham· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Keith Mumphery

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 HS recruit rating; −0.02 age

Darren Waller

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 Power-5 production share; +0.03 charting total career snaps

Dorial Green-Beckham

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; +0.03 charting total career snaps