3 prospects · 2015 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Keith Mumphery (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #248 (range #246-#250, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 1% — low. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #248 stands alone — and with bust risk at 1%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects DeAndre Smelter (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #237 (range #235-#239, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #132 by SFO in 2015 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #237 stands alone — and with bust risk at 65%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects DeVante Parker (age 22.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #170 (range #168-#172, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 5% — low. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #170 stands alone — and with bust risk at 5%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.