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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OT)
TT
Tyrus Thompson
OT · Oklahoma
— · 6'5" · 324 lb
RH
Rob Havenstein
OT · Wisconsin
— · 6'7" · 321 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Tyrus Thompson over Rob Havenstein.

Decisive factor: 110-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Tyrus Thompson
Predicted pick
#43
range #33–#53
Bust probability· rough estimate
58%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$9Mmodel
Rob Havenstein
Predicted pick
#153
range #143–#163
Bust probability· rough estimate
58%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$10Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Tyrus Thompson· Offensive line
  • Rob Havenstein· Offensive line
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTyrus Thompson50
  • AthleticismTyrus Thompson50
  • AgeTyrus Thompson68
  • ConsensusRob Havenstein54
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Tyrus Thompson50
  • Breakout ageTyrus Thompson50
  • WorkloadTyrus Thompson50
  • RAS × productionTyrus Thompson94

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Tyrus Thompson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Rob Havenstein
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Tyrus Thompson
Risks
  • Not on any consensus board
    Model has him at pick #43 but ZERO public big boards have him on their list. Either we're seeing something nobody else does, or the model is hallucinating.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Rob Havenstein
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Tyrus ThompsonRob Havenstein· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Tyrus Thompson

Draftanomics projects Tyrus Thompson as a Day 2 pick at #43 (range #33-#53, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 58% — elevated. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #43 stands alone — and with bust risk at 58%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.

Rob Havenstein

Draftanomics projects Rob Havenstein as a mid-round flyer at #153 (range #143-#163, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 58% — elevated. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #153 stands alone — and with bust risk at 58%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.