3 prospects · 2015 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Ryan Murphy (age 22.5 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #92 (range #78-#106, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #248 by SEA in 2015 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #92 stands alone — and with bust risk at 65%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Tye Smith (age 22.0 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #61 (range #44-#78, wide band). Bust probability sits at 47% — elevated. 40-yard dash of 4.60s — historically corners above 4.55s rarely become NFL starters. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #61 stands alone — and with bust risk at 47%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Steven Nelson (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #38 (range #24-#52, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #38 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.