3 prospects · 2015 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Xzavier Dickson (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #138 (range #128-#148, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. Drafted #253 by NWE in 2015 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #138 stands alone — and with bust risk at 20%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Tony Steward (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #224 (range #210-#238, wide band). Bust probability sits at 26% — manageable. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #224 stands alone — and with bust risk at 26%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Neiron Ball (age 22.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #144 (range #134-#154, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 21% — manageable. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #144 stands alone — and with bust risk at 21%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.