3 prospects · 2015 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Quinten Rollins (age 22.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #162 (range #148-#176, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. 40-yard dash of 4.57s — historically corners above 4.55s rarely become NFL starters. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #162 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Dexter McDonald (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #186 (range #172-#200, wide band). Bust probability sits at 47% — elevated. Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #186 stands alone — and with bust risk at 47%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Lorenzo Doss (age 21.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #67 (range #53-#81, wide band). Bust probability sits at 47% — elevated. School SP+ rating -15.0 (well below FBS median of 0). College production may not translate against NFL-quality DBs/pass-rushers. Schedule rank #65 (1=hardest). The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #67 stands alone — and with bust risk at 47%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.