3 prospects · 2015 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Martrell Spaight (age 21.7 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #5 (range #1-#22, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 21% — manageable. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #5 stands alone — and with bust risk at 21%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Shaquille Riddick (age 21.9 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #10 (range #1-#27, wide band). Bust probability sits at 44% — real but not disqualifying. Drafted #158 by ARI in 2015 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #10 stands alone — and with bust risk at 44%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Nate Orchard (age 22.3 at draft) as a first-round pick at #17 (range #7-#27, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 26% — manageable. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #17 stands alone — and with bust risk at 26%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.