Draftanomics
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • 2028 way-too-early
  • Draft news
  • Simulator
  • The house mock
  • Draft order
  • Trade calculator
  • The Scouting Slate
  • Sleepers & reaches
  • Movers & fallers
  • Player comps
  • Dynasty rookie board
  • Track record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Analyst leaderboard
My rankingsAccount
Get the weekly →
Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

Boards
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • Sleepers
Tools
  • Mock draft simulator
  • Plays Like
  • Dynasty rookie board
Track Record
  • Year-by-year results
  • Accountability Index
  • Our board, on the record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Methodology
  • Developers · free API
  • About
Account
  • My board
  • Weekly email
Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
  4. Compare

Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (S)
JT
Jaquiski Tartt
S · Samford
23.2 yo · 6'1" · 221 lb
DS
Derron Smith
S · Fresno St.
23.2 yo · 5'10" · 200 lb
JS
James Sample
S · Louisville
22.8 yo · 6'2" · 209 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Jaquiski Tartt
Predicted pick
#169
range #112–#262
Bust probability· rough estimate
15%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$8Mmodel
Derron Smith
Predicted pick
#214
range #131–#265
Bust probability· rough estimate
47%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
James Sample
Predicted pick
#233
range #96–#248
Bust probability· rough estimate
29%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Jaquiski Tartt· CB / S
  • Derron Smith· CB / S
  • James Sample· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJaquiski Tartt50
  • AthleticismJaquiski Tartt42
  • AgeJames Sample41
  • ConsensusJaquiski Tartt45
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Jaquiski Tartt50
  • Breakout ageJaquiski Tartt50
  • WorkloadJaquiski Tartt50
  • RAS × productionJaquiski Tartt100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Jaquiski Tartt
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Derron Smith
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
James Sample
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Jaquiski Tartt
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Derron Smith
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
James Sample
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Jaquiski TarttDerron SmithJames Sample· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Jaquiski Tartt

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; −0.03 age

Derron Smith

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.02 age; +0.02 charting total career snaps

James Sample

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.03 HS recruit rating; +0.02 charting total career snaps