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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
DS
DeAndre Smelter
WR · Georgia Tech
23.4 yo · 6'2" · 226 lb
DW
Darren Waller
WR · Georgia Tech
22.6 yo · 6'6" · 238 lb
KM
Keith Mumphery
WR · Michigan St.
22.9 yo · 6'0" · 215 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

DeAndre Smelter
Predicted pick
#237
range #100–#252
Bust probability
9%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Darren Waller
Predicted pick
#151
range #94–#244
Bust probability
15%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel
Keith Mumphery
Predicted pick
#248
range #111–#263
Bust probability
12%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • DeAndre Smelter· RB / WR / TE
  • Darren Waller· RB / WR / TE
  • Keith Mumphery· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDeAndre Smelter33
  • AthleticismDeAndre Smelter40
  • AgeDarren Waller67
  • ConsensusKeith Mumphery37
  • Per-play impact (PPA)DeAndre Smelter50
  • Breakout ageDeAndre Smelter50
  • WorkloadDeAndre Smelter100
  • RAS × productionDeAndre Smelter0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
DeAndre Smelter
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Darren Waller
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Keith Mumphery
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

DeAndre Smelter
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Darren Waller
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Keith Mumphery
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
DeAndre SmelterDarren WallerKeith Mumphery· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

DeAndre Smelter

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.03 age; +0.02 charting total career snaps

Darren Waller

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 Power-5 production share; +0.03 charting total career snaps

Keith Mumphery

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 HS recruit rating; −0.02 age