Draftanomics
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • 2028 way-too-early
  • Draft news
  • Simulator
  • The house mock
  • Draft order
  • Trade calculator
  • The Scouting Slate
  • Sleepers & reaches
  • Movers & fallers
  • Player comps
  • Dynasty rookie board
  • Track record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Analyst leaderboard
My rankingsAccount
Get the weekly →
Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

Boards
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • Sleepers
Tools
  • Mock draft simulator
  • Plays Like
  • Dynasty rookie board
Track Record
  • Year-by-year results
  • Accountability Index
  • Our board, on the record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Methodology
  • Developers · free API
  • About
Account
  • My board
  • Weekly email
Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
  4. Compare

Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
KB
Kenny Bell
WR · Nebraska
23.2 yo · 6'1" · 197 lb
TM
Ty Montgomery
WR · Stanford
22.3 yo · 6'0" · 221 lb
CC
Chris Conley
WR · Georgia
22.5 yo · 6'2" · 213 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Kenny Bell
Predicted pick
#231
range #94–#246
Bust probability
47%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Ty Montgomery
Predicted pick
#126
range #96–#256
Bust probability
12%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Chris Conley
Predicted pick
#121
range #91–#251
Bust probability
12%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Kenny Bell· RB / WR / TE
  • Ty Montgomery· RB / WR / TE
  • Chris Conley· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionKenny Bell33
  • AthleticismChris Conley100
  • AgeTy Montgomery95
  • ConsensusChris Conley61
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Kenny Bell50
  • Breakout ageKenny Bell50
  • WorkloadKenny Bell100
  • RAS × productionKenny Bell91

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Kenny Bell
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Ty Montgomery
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Chris Conley
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Kenny Bell
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Ty Montgomery
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Chris Conley
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Kenny BellTy MontgomeryChris Conley· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Kenny Bell

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.03 age; −0.02 lowest board ranking

Ty Montgomery

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 HS recruit rating; −0.02 scout consensus

Chris Conley

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 HS recruit rating; +0.02 charting total career snaps