3 prospects · 2015 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kaelin Clay (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #228 (range #226-#230, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 71% — scary. Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #228 stands alone — and with bust risk at 71%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Evan Spencer (age 21.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #195 (range #193-#197, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #195 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects JJ Nelson (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #182 (range #161-#203, wide band). Bust probability sits at 18% — manageable. Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #182 stands alone — and with bust risk at 18%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.