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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
NS
Neal Sterling
WR · Monmouth
23.3 yo · — · —
JN
JJ Nelson
WR · Ala-Birmingham
23.0 yo · — · —
DB
Da'Ron Brown
WR · Northern Illinois
23.6 yo · 6'0" · 205 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Neal Sterling
Predicted pick
#189
range #106–#240
Bust probability
20%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
JJ Nelson
Predicted pick
#182
range #125–#275
Bust probability
20%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Da'Ron Brown
Predicted pick
#250
range #113–#265
Bust probability
41%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Neal Sterling· RB / WR / TE
  • JJ Nelson· RB / WR / TE
  • Da'Ron Brown· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionNeal Sterling33
  • AthleticismNeal Sterling40
  • AgeJJ Nelson36
  • ConsensusNeal Sterling65
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Neal Sterling50
  • Breakout ageNeal Sterling50
  • WorkloadNeal Sterling100
  • RAS × productionNeal Sterling0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Neal Sterling
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
JJ Nelson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Da'Ron Brown
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Neal Sterling
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
JJ Nelson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Da'Ron Brown
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Neal SterlingJJ NelsonDa'Ron Brown· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Neal Sterling

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; −0.03 age

JJ Nelson

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; −0.02 age

Da'Ron Brown

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.03 age; −0.03 production trajectory