3 prospects · 2015 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Chris Conley (age 22.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #121 (range #119-#123, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. Career trajectory in receiving yards: 288 → 342 → 651 → 657. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #121 stands alone — and with bust risk at 6%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Sammie Coates (age 22.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #75 (range #73-#77, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #75 stands alone — and with bust risk at 6%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Rashad Greene (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #171 (range #161-#181, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 76% — scary. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #171 stands alone — and with bust risk at 76%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.