2 prospects · 2015 draft
Decisive factor: 127-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 71 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects David Cobb (age 21.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #118 (range #116-#120, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. Production concentrated in one season: best 1629 rushing yards vs 4-season mean 724. Limited multi-year tape — small sample of true production. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #118 stands alone — and with bust risk at 6%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Josh Robinson (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #245 (range #243-#247, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 77% — scary. Career trajectory in rushing yards: 335 → 459 → 1203. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #245 stands alone — and with bust risk at 77%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.