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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (TE)
GS
Geoff Swaim
TE · Texas
21.6 yo · — · —
JJ
Jesse James
TE · Penn St.
20.9 yo · 6'7" · 261 lb
NB
Nick Boyle
TE · Delaware
22.2 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Geoff Swaim
Predicted pick
#147
range #145–#149
Bust probability
1%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$9Mmodel
Jesse James
Predicted pick
#32
range #30–#34
Bust probability
6%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$8Mmodel
Nick Boyle
Predicted pick
#85
range #64–#106
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Geoff Swaim· RB / WR / TE
  • Jesse James· RB / WR / TE
  • Nick Boyle· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJesse James100
  • AthleticismGeoff Swaim40
  • AgeGeoff Swaim97
  • ConsensusJesse James87
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Geoff Swaim50
  • Breakout ageGeoff Swaim50
  • WorkloadJesse James100
  • RAS × productionGeoff Swaim0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Geoff Swaim
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Jesse James
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Nick Boyle
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Geoff Swaim
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Jesse James
Risks
  • TE slow 40 (4.83s)
    40-yard dash of 4.83s — below-average separation speed for the position.
  • Not on any consensus board
    Model has him at pick #32 but ZERO public big boards have him on their list. Either we're seeing something nobody else does, or the model is hallucinating.
  • Below-cohort college production
    Position-cohort z-score on production composite is -1.39 — well below the skill average. Raw box-score output didn't keep pace with peers.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Nick Boyle
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Not on any consensus board
    Model has him at pick #85 but ZERO public big boards have him on their list. Either we're seeing something nobody else does, or the model is hallucinating.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Geoff SwaimJesse JamesNick Boyle· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Geoff Swaim

Draftanomics projects Geoff Swaim (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #147 (range #145-#149, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 1% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #147 stands alone — and with bust risk at 1%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.

Jesse James

Draftanomics projects Jesse James (age 20.9 at draft) as a first-round pick at #32 (range #30-#34, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. 40-yard dash of 4.83s — below-average separation speed for the position. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #32 stands alone — and with bust risk at 6%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.

Nick Boyle

Draftanomics projects Nick Boyle (age 22.2 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #85 (range #64-#106, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #85 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.