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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
SC
Sammie Coates
WR · Auburn
22.1 yo · 6'1" · 212 lb
CC
Chris Conley
WR · Georgia
22.5 yo · 6'2" · 213 lb
RG
Rashad Greene
WR · Florida St.
22.6 yo · 5'11" · 182 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Sammie Coates
Predicted pick
#75
range #75–#232
Bust probability
10%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Chris Conley
Predicted pick
#121
range #91–#251
Bust probability
12%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Rashad Greene
Predicted pick
#171
range #114–#264
Bust probability
44%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Sammie Coates· RB / WR / TE
  • Chris Conley· RB / WR / TE
  • Rashad Greene· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionSammie Coates33
  • AthleticismSammie Coates100
  • AgeSammie Coates99
  • ConsensusChris Conley61
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Sammie Coates50
  • Breakout ageSammie Coates50
  • WorkloadSammie Coates100
  • RAS × productionSammie Coates0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Sammie Coates
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Chris Conley
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Rashad Greene
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Sammie Coates
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Chris Conley
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Rashad Greene
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Sammie CoatesChris ConleyRashad Greene· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Sammie Coates

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 Power-5 production share; +0.02 age

Chris Conley

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 HS recruit rating; +0.02 charting total career snaps

Rashad Greene

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.03 HS recruit rating; +0.03 charting total career snaps