Draftanomics
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • 2028 way-too-early
  • Draft news
  • Simulator
  • The house mock
  • Draft order
  • Trade calculator
  • The Scouting Slate
  • Sleepers & reaches
  • Movers & fallers
  • Player comps
  • Dynasty rookie board
  • Track record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Analyst leaderboard
My rankingsAccount
Get the weekly →
Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

Boards
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • Sleepers
Tools
  • Mock draft simulator
  • Plays Like
  • Dynasty rookie board
Track Record
  • Year-by-year results
  • Accountability Index
  • Our board, on the record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Methodology
  • Developers · free API
  • About
Account
  • My board
  • Weekly email
Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
  4. Compare

Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
MH
Marcus Hardison
EDGE · Arizona St.
23.2 yo · — · —
BM
Brian Mihalik
EDGE · Boston Col.
22.7 yo · — · —
ZS
Za'Darius Smith
EDGE · Kentucky
22.6 yo · 6'4" · 274 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Marcus Hardison
Predicted pick
#183
range #126–#276
Bust probability
71%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Brian Mihalik
Predicted pick
#110
range #80–#240
Bust probability
22%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Za'Darius Smith
Predicted pick
#42
range #111–#208
Bust probability
26%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$17Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Marcus Hardison· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Brian Mihalik· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Za'Darius Smith· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMarcus Hardison0
  • AthleticismMarcus Hardison42
  • AgeBrian Mihalik87
  • ConsensusZa'Darius Smith82
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Marcus Hardison50
  • Breakout ageMarcus Hardison50
  • WorkloadMarcus Hardison50
  • RAS × productionMarcus Hardison100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Marcus Hardison
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Brian Mihalik
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Za'Darius Smith
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Marcus Hardison
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Brian Mihalik
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Za'Darius Smith
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Marcus HardisonBrian MihalikZa'Darius Smith· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Marcus Hardison

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; −0.02 age

Brian Mihalik

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; −0.02 lowest board ranking

Za'Darius Smith

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; +0.02 charting total career snaps