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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
MH
Marcus Hardison
EDGE · Arizona St.
23.2 yo · — · —
RR
Ryan Russell
EDGE · Purdue
23.3 yo · 6'4" · 269 lb
BM
Brian Mihalik
EDGE · Boston Col.
22.7 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Marcus Hardison
Predicted pick
#183
range #126–#276
Bust probability
71%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Ryan Russell
Predicted pick
#161
range #104–#254
Bust probability
74%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$8Mmodel
Brian Mihalik
Predicted pick
#110
range #80–#240
Bust probability
22%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Marcus Hardison· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Ryan Russell· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Brian Mihalik· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMarcus Hardison0
  • AthleticismRyan Russell69
  • AgeBrian Mihalik87
  • ConsensusRyan Russell57
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Marcus Hardison50
  • Breakout ageMarcus Hardison50
  • WorkloadMarcus Hardison50
  • RAS × productionMarcus Hardison100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Marcus Hardison
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Ryan Russell
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Brian Mihalik
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Marcus Hardison
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Ryan Russell
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Brian Mihalik
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Marcus HardisonRyan RussellBrian Mihalik· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Marcus Hardison

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; −0.02 age

Ryan Russell

−0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.03 age; +0.02 charting total career snaps

Brian Mihalik

−0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 HS recruit rating; −0.02 lowest board ranking