3 prospects · 2015 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Rashad Greene (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #171 (range #161-#181, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 76% — scary. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #171 stands alone — and with bust risk at 76%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Kenny Bell (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #231 (range #229-#233, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 77% — scary. Drafted #162 by TAM in 2015 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #231 stands alone — and with bust risk at 77%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Keith Mumphery (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #248 (range #246-#250, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 1% — low. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #248 stands alone — and with bust risk at 1%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.