3 prospects · 2015 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects T.J. Yeldon (age 21.6 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #3 (range #1-#5, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. PPA avg_all 0.249 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #3 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Karlos Williams (age 22.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #230 (range #228-#232, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. PPA avg_all 0.172 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #230 stands alone — and with bust risk at 6%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Kenny Hilliard (age 23.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #243 (range #241-#245, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 77% — scary. Drafted #235 by HOU in 2015 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #243 stands alone — and with bust risk at 77%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.