3 prospects · 2015 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Tyler Lockett (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #107 (range #105-#109, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 18% — manageable. Career trajectory in receiving yards: 246 → 687 → 1262 → 1515. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #107 stands alone — and with bust risk at 18%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Phillip Dorsett (age 22.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #154 (range #152-#156, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 34% — real but not disqualifying. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #154 stands alone — and with bust risk at 34%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects DeVante Parker (age 22.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #170 (range #168-#172, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 18% — manageable. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #170 stands alone — and with bust risk at 18%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.