3 prospects · 2015 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Gerod Holliman (age 21.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #174 (range #164-#184, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #239 by PIT in 2015 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #174 stands alone — and with bust risk at 65%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Jordan Richards (age 22.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #140 (range #130-#150, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #140 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Derron Smith (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #214 (range #204-#224, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 47% — elevated. Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #214 stands alone — and with bust risk at 47%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.