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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2015 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2015 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (TE)
JH
Jeff Heuerman
TE · Ohio St.
22.4 yo · 6'5" · 254 lb
JJ
Jesse James
TE · Penn St.
20.9 yo · 6'7" · 261 lb
RT
Randall Telfer
TE · USC
22.9 yo · 6'4" · 250 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Jeff Heuerman
Predicted pick
#239
range #102–#254
Bust probability
26%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Jesse James
Predicted pick
#32
range #101–#198
Bust probability
26%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$8Mmodel
Randall Telfer
Predicted pick
#198
range #115–#249
Bust probability
75%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Jeff Heuerman· RB / WR / TE
  • Jesse James· RB / WR / TE
  • Randall Telfer· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJesse James100
  • AthleticismJeff Heuerman40
  • AgeJesse James96
  • ConsensusJesse James87
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Jeff Heuerman50
  • Breakout ageJeff Heuerman50
  • WorkloadJeff Heuerman100
  • RAS × productionJeff Heuerman0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Jeff Heuerman
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Jesse James
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Randall Telfer
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Jeff Heuerman
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Jesse James
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Randall Telfer
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Jeff HeuermanJesse JamesRandall Telfer· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Jeff Heuerman

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 Power-5 production share; −0.03 HS recruit rating

Jesse James

−0.05 boards with him top-100; +0.03 college production; +0.03 HS recruit rating

Randall Telfer

−0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 Power-5 production share; −0.03 HS recruit rating