3 prospects · 2015 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Andrew Donnal as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #90 (range #80-#100, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 58% — elevated. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #90 stands alone — and with bust risk at 58%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Denzelle Good as a Day 3 dart throw at #200 (range #183-#217, wide band). Bust probability sits at 78% — scary. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #200 stands alone — and with bust risk at 78%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Donovan Smith as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #77 (range #70-#84, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 58% — elevated. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #77 stands alone — and with bust risk at 58%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.