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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
KC
Kamalei Correa
EDGE · Boise St.
22.0 yo · 6'3" · 243 lb
CN
Carl Nassib
EDGE · Penn St.
23.0 yo · 6'7" · 277 lb
SL
Shaq Lawson
EDGE · Clemson
21.9 yo · 6'3" · 269 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Kamalei Correa
Predicted pick
#103
range #47–#224
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#75
on 13 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Carl Nassib
Predicted pick
#118
range #38–#226
Bust probability
4%
Consensus rank
#60
on 6 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$9Mmodel
Shaq Lawson
Predicted pick
#31
range #13–#74
Bust probability
3%
Consensus rank
#7
on 20 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$14Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Kamalei Correa· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Carl Nassib· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Shaq Lawson· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionKamalei Correa50
  • AthleticismShaq Lawson76
  • AgeKamalei Correa85
  • ConsensusShaq Lawson99
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Kamalei Correa50
  • Breakout ageKamalei Correa50
  • WorkloadKamalei Correa50
  • RAS × productionKamalei Correa100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Kamalei Correa
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Carl Nassib
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Shaq Lawson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Kamalei Correa
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Carl Nassib
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Shaq Lawson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Kamalei CorreaCarl NassibShaq Lawson· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Kamalei Correa

−0.06 charting: average depth of target allowed, career avg; +0.05 charting coverage grade career avg; −0.04 charting total career snaps

Carl Nassib

−0.04 charting total career snaps; −0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.03 age

Shaq Lawson

+0.07 scout consensus; +0.07 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting: average depth of target allowed, career avg