3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Deion Jones (age 21.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #107 (range #100-#114, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 24 spots below the room's consensus #83 — don't pay sticker price. The 24-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects B.J. Goodson (age 22.9 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #70 (range #63-#77, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a value lean: #70 against a consensus #82 is a 12-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.
Draftanomics projects Myles Jack (age 20.6 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #5 (range #1-#12, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #5 and the room's #6 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.