2 prospects · 2016 draft
Decisive factor: 112-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by $10M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Austin Hooper (age 21.5 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #104 (range #102-#106, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. 40-yard dash of 4.72s — below-average separation speed for the position. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #84 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — te slow 40 (4.72s) leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jerell Adams (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #216 (range #214-#218, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #74 and the model won't take him before #216 — a 142-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.