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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (TE)
AH
Austin Hooper
TE · Stanford
21.5 yo · 6'4" · 254 lb
TD
Thomas Duarte
TE · UCLA
21.1 yo · 6'2" · 231 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Austin Hooper over Thomas Duarte.

Decisive factor: 101-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 24 points lower and $8M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Austin Hooper
Predicted pick
#104
range #48–#225
Bust probability
6%
Consensus rank
#138
on 11 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$14Mmodel
Thomas Duarte
Predicted pick
#205
range #64–#248
Bust probability
29%
Consensus rank
#144
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Austin Hooper· RB / WR / TE
  • Thomas Duarte· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionAustin Hooper66
  • AthleticismAustin Hooper45
  • AgeThomas Duarte91
  • ConsensusThomas Duarte14
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Austin Hooper50
  • Breakout ageAustin Hooper50
  • WorkloadAustin Hooper100
  • RAS × productionAustin Hooper0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Austin Hooper
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Thomas Duarte
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Austin Hooper
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Thomas Duarte
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Austin HooperThomas Duarte· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Austin Hooper

−0.04 Power-5 production share; −0.04 charting total career snaps; +0.03 charting gap run block grade

Thomas Duarte

−0.05 charting total career snaps; −0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.03 age