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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
CP
C.J. Prosise
RB · Notre Dame
21.9 yo · 6'0" · 220 lb
DH
Derrick Henry
RB · Alabama
22.3 yo · 6'3" · 247 lb
EE
Ezekiel Elliott
RB · Ohio St.
20.8 yo · 6'0" · 225 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

C.J. Prosise
Predicted pick
#48
range #46–#50
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#119
on 11 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Derrick Henry
Predicted pick
#55
range #29–#159
Bust probability
15%
Consensus rank
#44
on 16 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$23Mmodel
Ezekiel Elliott
Predicted pick
#4
range #2–#28
Bust probability
9%
Consensus rank
#6
on 20 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$24Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • C.J. Prosise· RB / WR / TE
  • Derrick Henry· RB / WR / TE
  • Ezekiel Elliott· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionC.J. Prosise0
  • AthleticismC.J. Prosise78
  • AgeC.J. Prosise79
  • ConsensusEzekiel Elliott94
  • Per-play impact (PPA)C.J. Prosise50
  • Breakout ageC.J. Prosise50
  • WorkloadC.J. Prosise100
  • RAS × productionC.J. Prosise89

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
C.J. Prosise
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Derrick Henry
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Ezekiel Elliott
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

C.J. Prosise
Risks
  • Consensus skeptic
    12 boards place him at mean rank #81; model has him #48 — a 33-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.252 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
  • Mid-major standout
    School SP+ 22.4 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition.
Derrick Henry
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Ezekiel Elliott
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
C.J. ProsiseDerrick HenryEzekiel Elliott· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

C.J. Prosise

Draftanomics projects C.J. Prosise (age 21.9 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #48 (range #46-#50, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. School SP+ 22.4 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. PPA avg_all 0.252 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 33 spots ahead of the room (board #48 vs consensus #81), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Derrick Henry

+0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.05 production trajectory; −0.05 charting total career snaps

Ezekiel Elliott

+0.09 boards with him top-100; +0.06 scout consensus; −0.05 charting total career snaps